On November 5, voters in the US will head to the polls to decide who should be the next president: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. But over the past several months, people from around the world have been placing millions of dollars on who will win that race. As interest in betting on US politics reaches a new high, the FT’s Oliver Roeder and Sam Learner explain how these markets work and what can (and can’t) be learned from them.

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For further reading:

Prediction markets can tell the future. Why is the US so afraid of them?

Take political betting markets literally, not seriously

What the polls can’t tell us about America’s election

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Attend the FT Global Banking Summit, December 3 and 4 in London: Enter BTM20 for a 20% discount (applicable on all ticket types), register here.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Activist investors tend to rely on an element of surprise to catch their target company off guard: quietly building up a stake and swooping in with a slide deck full of strategic changes at just the right moment. That’s not what happened at the beginning of a recent campaign led by the hedge fund Starboard Value against pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. The FT’s Oliver Barnes, US pharmaceutical and biotech correspondent, and Maria Heeter, US deals correspondent, examine what went awry and what happens next.

Clips from CBS, ABC, CNBC, NBC

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For further reading:

Starboard plotted a campaign against Pfizer’s chief. Then a blank email dropped in his inbox

Why Pfizer sorely needs the activist treatment

Starboard-Pfizer battle strains Guggenheim’s relationship with drugmaker

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On X, follow Oliver Barnes (@mroliverbarnes), Maria Heeter (@HeeterMaria) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

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Attend the FT Global Banking Summit, December 3 and 4 in London: Enter BTM20 for a 20% discount (applicable on all ticket types), register here.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When it comes to trading, Wall Street’s investment banks are falling further behind. And independent trading firms, such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities, are taking the lead in everything from stocks and options to derivatives and crypto. The trading firms argue that they’ve made the process more efficient, but what risks does that carry? The FT’s US banking editor Joshua Franklin explains.

Clips from Lionsgate

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For further reading:

New titans of Wall Street: how trading firms stole a march on big banks

New titans of Wall Street: how Jane Street rode the ETF wave to ‘obscene’ riches

‘King of the geeks’: how Alex Gerko built a British trading titan

The limits of bond market electronification

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On X, follow Joshua Franklin (@FTJFranklin) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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After the financial crisis, dealmaking among banks in different countries in Europe fell to a standstill. But recently, Italian lender UniCredit revealed that it had built up a stake in Germany’s Commerzbank, prompting discussions of a possible tie-up. EU policymakers and politicians believe cross-border deals like this could unlock European banking and make it more competitive globally. So why is there resistance? The FT’s European banking correspondent Owen Walker explains.

Clips from Bloomberg, BBC

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For further reading:

Andrea Orcel plots UniCredit’s boldest move yet on Commerzbank

Andrea Orcel, Commerzbank and the redemption trade

Europe’s most notorious banking dealmaker returns

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On X, follow Owen Walker (@OwenWalker0) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After mounting a comeback, Netflix shares recently hit all-time highs. But its success is in stark contrast to the rest of Hollywood, which is struggling to adapt in an industry that is becoming more and more dominated by tech companies. The FT’s Los Angeles bureau chief Chris Grimes explains how Netflix came out on top and how its dominance could change the rules of Hollywood.

Clips from AP Archive, CBS, Evening Standard, Reuters, NBC

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For further reading:

How Netflix won the streaming wars

Netflix profits surge after password-sharing crackdown

Streaming wars are over and Netflix won

Netflix faces tough battle in advertising wars

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On X, follow Chris Grimes (@grimes_ce) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Volkswagen is facing a crisis. Often considered a symbol of Germany’s industrial power, it’s now reckoning with a difficult transition to electric vehicles, among other issues. And now, management is considering breaking a long-held taboo: closing German factories. Patricia Nilsson, the FT’s Frankfurt correspondent, heads to VW’s headquarters in Wolfsburg to examine the fallout and what’s next.

Clips from Bloomberg, DW News, CNN

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For further reading:

For European carmakers, EVs are a Catch-22

Why Volkswagen is seeking to break the taboo of closing German plants

VW audit of Xinjiang plant failed to meet international standards

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On X, follow Patricia Nilsson (@patricianilsson) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Companies in Japan have long avoided foreign acquisitions. But Canada-based Alimentation Couche-Tard’s recent unsolicited bid for the owner of the 7-Eleven convenience store chain is testing that premise. The FT’s Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis examines how these events could shape corporate Japan’s future.

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For further reading:

The takeover fight that could reshape Japan

After 7-Eleven, Japan’s M&A scene may never be the same again

7-Eleven bid is the next stage in revitalising corporate Japan

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On X, follow Leo Lewis (@urbandirt) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Jay Powell’s Federal Reserve contemplates making the first interest rate cut in more than two years, we’re taking a step back with the FT’s US financial commentator Robert Armstrong. How did Powell tame inflation without crashing the economy? And how might history judge his leadership?

Clips from Associated Press

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For further reading:

Is Jay Powell lucky or good?

Remain calm

Martin Sandbu’s column: A self-congratulatory inflation narrative at Jackson Hole

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On X, follow Robert Armstrong (@rbrtrmstrng) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Want to hear more from Rob? Listen to the Unhedged podcast.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.