South Korea and China have a complex relationship characterized by economic interdependence, strategic competition, and regional security concerns. Navigating this delicate balance has been a defining challenge for every South Korean president. Newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has assumed power at a time of increasing US-China strategic competition as well as uncertain global supply chains and growing threat from North Korea. Could this new administration mark a shift in Seoul’s approach to Beijing? Or will President Lee maintain strategies similar to that of President Yoon?

To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests”

[05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations

[09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China

[14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions

[19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage

[25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025

[31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan

On June 13th, Israel launched attacks on several military and nuclear facilities in Iran, marking the beginning of a 12-day war between the two countries. The United States followed with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and posing a threat to regional and global stability. China’s involvement in the conflict was limited to condemning the Israeli and US use of military force and calling for de-escalation. Beijing offered only rhetorical support for Tehran.

To discuss what the Israel-Iran war reveals about China’s relationship with Iran, its evolving strategy in the Middle East, and the broader implications for US-China competition, we are joined by Yun Sun on the podcast today. Yun is a Senior Fellow, co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Her recent piece in The Wire China entitled “How China Sees Iran’s Future” offers provides a nuanced take on Beijing’s calculus during and after the war.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:34] China’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward the Middle East

[05:00] A Limited Chinese Response and China’s Regional Role

[08:19] Chinese Perceptions of Iran’s External Strategic Blunders

[15:00] Trickling Chinese Investment into Iran

[20:10] Chinese Concerns About a Nuclearized Iran

[25:09] Implications of the Israel-Iran War for China’s Energy Security

[32:04] Trump’s Response Shaping Chinese Views of the United States

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China has never condemned the invasion, and its government and media have carefully avoided using term “Ukraine War,” opting instead to refer to the war as the “Ukraine crisis,” the “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or the “special military operation,” a term that echoes Moscow’s language.

Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China’s own principles, including respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace.

This episode’s discussion will focus on China’s evolving posture toward the war and China’s relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:35] China’s Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia’s Invasion

[05:06] President Zelenskyy’s Accusations Against China

[08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China

[12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations

[16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker

[19:06] China’s Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War

[21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace?

[23:14] China’s Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine

[28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations