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  • Ep104. Trump and Putin - the Bromance reignited: with Sir Bill Browder
    2025/03/04
    When it comes to Russia, Trump’s America appears on the verge of a major foreign policy U-turn. Trump called Zelenskyy a dictator and lyingly claimed that Ukraine had started the war. After years of isolating and sanctioning Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Team Trump met face to face with the Russian Foreign Minister in Saudi and now appears ready to do direct business with Russia and sell out the Ukrainians. And most recently, the US voted alongside Russia and North Korea at the UN on a resolution about Ukraine. Despite these worrying moves, at the moment, the U-turn remains hypothetical… all words, not yet binding actions. So… how seriously should we take this perspective shift? Might the Ukrainian-American mineral resource deal (set to be signed on Feb 28) shift America back into the Ukrainian corner? And what are the implications for Europe and its allies if America actually switches sides to support Russia long term? To discuss this perilous moment, we’re joined again by Sir Bill Browder, a successful investor, a globally acclaimed author, and a famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate. Browder’s tireless advocacy for holding dictators and their henchman to account is widely known. He was a guest on the Disorder programme in Episode 26, a few days after his friend Alexei Navalny was murdered by Putin. In this episode, Jason and Sir Bill discuss the transactional nature of Trump 2.0 and the seek to work out whether the recently announced Ukraine mineral deal actually amounts to a hill of beans. Browder emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation, the moral implications of Trump’s proposed U-turn. Finally: as they Order the Disorder, Bill and Jason discuss the practicalities of how to turn confiscate currently frozen Russian assets and use them to fund Ukrainian defence. Sir Bill ends the show with a heartrending call for solidarity with the Ukrainian people. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: Watch Bloomberg Editor Javier Blas on the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have any significant rare earths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=nqJ6Vgetyn8&t=23s&fbclid=IwY2xjawIuZ8ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfHqQQ2oA1u0f9dwlY57utRKDAlMk3uustcJ_QaiEBTeO2Duhzu5d1guUA_aem_CogDpEa6G7WcwC-7R5q6DQ Read the FT explainer of the US-Ukraine Mineral deal: https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6 Read ‘What the US-Ukraine mineral deal actually means’ from the Kyiv Independent: https://kyivindependent.com/first-we-need-peace-us-ukraine-minerals-deal-first-step-on-long-road-to-investment/ Listen to our previous episode with Sir Bill Browder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece Read Sir Bill’s piece calling for Russian asset seizure: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia’s state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine’ | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc Watch Bill Browder explaining what can be done so Ukraine can 'fight another day’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_xV1nf44RA For more on illicit funds and foreign interference, listen to our recent episode with Peter Geoghegan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a7b4de27e0e05e297d97a505357d7050 Part 1 of our discussion with Tom Burgis on the issue of UK’s permissiveness over foreign political financing https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b Part 2 of Tom Burgis episode: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/2ccf0f088b7679b5b053679466f6a42d Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    55 分
  • Ep103 Navigating Political Backlash and Keir Starmer's Mega Ordering Opportunity
    2025/02/27
    Today, Jason and Alexandra answer some probing listener questions. They discuss the role of the UK in global politics, and the implications of Brexit. Dissect the challenges of maintaining progressive values amidst backlash, and the potential for Keir Starmer's leadership in navigating the UK's future relationship with the EU. They finish by talking about tax breaks for billionaires, and why following the money is important to understanding the Disorder we are living through. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack to get details of our March 11th event at RUSI: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    54 分
  • Ep102 An All-American constitutional crisis?
    2025/02/25
    As Trump and his cronies attempt to tear down all the checks and balances which have traditionally governed how the Executive relates to other branches of American governance, especially over the issue of impoundment, will the Courts or Congress genuinely stand up? If they don’t, or are unable to, is America facing a genuine constitutional crisis? Or is the issue not so much a constitutional crisis but a coordination one - and because we’re in an era of peak disorder – Congress, the Courts, the Dems, popular opposition, protesters, Lincoln Project people, business advocates of non-monopolistic competition – aren’t able to coordinate coherently enough to make a difference? Also why are there not massive popular protests across America, or is now not the right time for them? This week, Jason and Alex unpack these issues and more as they try to navigate listeners through the choppy seas of peak Disorder washing over the world. They reflect on the impact of recent Trump policies to defund USAID and undermine Ukraine, debating whether there’s any real coherent end goal to these radical policies beyond strewing Disorder. They also debate whether Trump’s America First agenda makes America stronger or weaker. Jason explains the importance of Russell Vought within Trump’s team, while arguing that Neo-populism isn’t actually about any real solutions or making America Stronger, but is merely about increasing the ‘Disorder and Distraction quotient’ to keep the Neo-populists in power. Meanwhile, Alex and Jason argue that the Democratic Party needs to coalesce around a single ‘leader of the opposition’ type-figure to prosecute the case against Trump’s actions. They also dive into Lala-land with their alter-egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. They finish not by Ordering the Disorder, but by diagnosing exactly why the world is living through peak Disorder. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links To examine the real architect of the Disorder, listen to the Today Explained episode about Russell Vought https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-explained/id1346207297?i=1000693687429 To grasp the constitutional implications of what is transpiring, listen to the excellent 538 podcast with Galen Druke interviewing constitutional law professor Peter Shane https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trumps-theory-of-presidential-power/id1077418457?i=1000693800713 Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    1 時間 3 分
  • Ep101. Munich Security Conference 2025 – What does it mean for European Security?
    2025/02/18
    In Munich last weekend, J.D. Vance shocked Europe with his speech castigating Europeans as having the ‘wrong values’ and not being ‘democratic’. Meanwhile, Trump and co. are doing the very democratic thing by being in Saudi Arabia and negotiating with Putin over Ukraine behind Zelenskyy’s back – possibly presaging ‘a deal’ that will be struck excluding Ukrainian input at all. As this episode drops, European leaders are finally trying to get out in front of events by meeting in Paris in an emergency summit, to counter with their own ‘peace proposal’ that would actually be beneficial for Ukraine’s future. Disorderly much? In this episode of Disorder, Jane Kinninmont tries to navigate these complexities in conversation with Jason Pack, as she brings us her personal reportage from last weekend’s Munich Security Conference. During her visit there, we hear three on-the-spot interviews (Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak; Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister; and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies) - discussing the shifting dynamics of US-European relations, the implications of Trump 2.0 on the Ukraine conflict, and the urgent need for Europe to reassess its defense priorities in light of potential US unpredictability. Plus: in an attempt to Order the Disorder, what can be done to foster unity among European nations? Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right For more on Jane’s interviewees and their outputs: Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak - https://x.com/leshchenkos?lang=en Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister: his bio here - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/todor-tagarev/ And see his recent ECFR piece “prepare for the worst - four scenarios for Ukraine under Trump 2.0” -https://ecfr.eu/article/prepare-for-the-worst-four-scenarious-for-ukraine-under-trump-2-0/ Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies, headquartered in South Africa with offices in Senegal, Kenya and Ethiopia - https://issafrica.org/author/ottilia-anna-maunganidze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    42 分
  • Ep100. Britain's Military: A Tool for Global Ordering?
    2025/02/11
    With a major war raging in Europe, a seemingly more expansionist Trump in the Whitehouse, and China’s long held desire to invade Taiwan, is Britain prepared militarily? It’s hard to tell. The current Labour government is still refusing to set out in detail its plans for Defence, including when it might increase spending to 2.5% of GDP. Instead, we are left waiting for the publication of a new Strategic Defence Review. So are Starmer and co missing an opportunity to be mega Orderers? To understand these issues and more, for our first episode in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), we’re joined by Matthew Savill. He’s the Director of Military Sciences at the London-based defence and security think tank. His team focusses on understanding trends in modern warfare and its impact on military strategy, capabilities and planning. Before joining RUSI he spent over 20 years in national security roles in government, starting as an intelligence analyst, and later moving on to policy and operations, working in both the Ministry of Defence and the UK Cabinet Office, and on deployments in Iraq, the Middle East and Afghanistan. Jason and Matthew discuss on the UK's role in defense and security, the challenges faced by the UK in military procurement and capabilities, and the need for the UK to maintain its status as a major global player. They compare the approaches in France and the UK, and whether we’re in a potential pre-war era, and whether Britain needs to maintain independent military capacities. As they Order the Disorder, they look at whether AI could be the way Britain becomes Mega Orderers, and Matthew leaves with a message for Starmer: invest in people. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links More on our partnership with RUSI - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast Read Matthew’s analysis, Starmer’s New National Security Adviser: A Consequential Choice - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/starmers-new-national-security-adviser-consequential-choice Read Matthew’s piece, A Hollow Force? Choices for the UK Armed Forces - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hollow-force-choices-uk-armed-forces Read The Disintegrated Review? Britain and the Ukraine Crisis by Matthew https://wavellroom.com/2022/03/14/the-disintegrated-review/ Our episode on AI with Marc Warner - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/3f615a6ab068a88f5dcd8d444dbbb60f Our episode with Jonathan Powell - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/94c9f3ec23902d3f606bffb43dc39928 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    51 分
  • Ep.99 The New Age of Political Influence
    2025/02/06
    We’re entering a new age of political influence, where money generates attention, and attention generates influence. In this meta-verse, old fashion regulations about lobbying and advertising are no longer suffiecnet and people like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg rule the roost. So, what can be done? To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by returning guest Peter Geoghegan, an Irish writer, journalist, and director of Democracy for Sale. The duo discuss: the pervasive influence of money in UK politics, how money buys attention and then indirectly influence, and this constellations implications for democracy. Peter tells Jane about the rise of super donors in UK politics and how social media algorithms spread Disorder. To finish, they look at how to Order the Disorder. Peter pushes for transparency in governance, and tells Kier Starmer to put a spending cap on individual’s political donations. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Hear our Previous episode with Peter - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a50fd0d6c8ad45567cac6b47cf060d4e Peter’s website - https://www.petergeoghegan.com/ Peter’s substack - https://democracyforsale.substack.com/ RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security specialises in the intersection of finance and global security. Their research includes work exploring the nature of the threat from global illicit flows, the harm they cause and how best to respond - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/research-groups/centre-for-finance-and-security Listen to Ezra Klein talking about the attention cycle - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/democrats-are-losing-the-war-for-attention-badly/id1548604447?i=1000684362481 Read Anne Applebaum’s piece on Musk and political interference in Europe https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/musk-tech-oligarch-european-election-influence/681453/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    43 分
  • Ep.98 Disorder Emergency cast – Tariffs, Impoundment, Gaza, AID Freeze, and plane crash
    2025/02/04
    Disorder is a podcast where we hate being right. Totally hate it. Jason truly loves being wrong. But fudge and fiddlesticks. Seems he is right again. The thing with neo-populists is that they don’t so much have policy agendas and goals, they just seek to disorder the universe by say – proposing to fire in a haphazard way 2 million U.S. government employees, or forcing out top FBI officials, or appointing officials for Senate confirmation to head government agencies that have overtly said they want to dismantle those specific agencies, or by randomly proposing to deport Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan against their will. On today’s Emergency Cast, Jane and Jason spontaneously convene to deal with peak disorder and delve into all the interlocking crises, dead catting, plane crashing, impounding, tariff barrier erecting, and AID stopping that has come to a head during Trump’s Second Week of his Second Term. In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jane wonders how much of the world will respond by trying to figure out how to decouple - slowly, gradually, cautiously – from the U.S. because U.S. politics does not exactly seem at its most stable. And Jason muses that Canada, Mexico, the UK and the EU could have chosen to present a united front to Trump, but appear to have elected not to. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links This is a most compelling podcast from the 538 about the ways in which the Trump Presidency threatens the constitutional balance of powers and how the issue of Impoundment is at the very core of the structural and legal threat of Trumpism to 're-do' the underlying structures of America: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000687276109 From the Washington Post, ‘Senior U.S. official exists after rift with Musk Allies of Payment System’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/01/31/elon-musk-treasury-department-payment-systems/ From CNN, ‘Inside 45 hours of chaos: The brief life and quick death of Trump’s federal spending freeze’: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/politics/inside-brief-life-trump-federal-spending-freeze/index.html From CNN, ‘Trump suggests his plan for Gaza Strip is to ‘clean out the whole thing”’: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/25/politics/trump-gaza-strip-jordan-egypt/index.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawIJDhZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfyYNmWDBz3iKiscGQHjvHQx_ZfwOPriV_8VGZmlxTh1JhZ-_NiNKbntsw_aem_rjBE8gcyRVXKVXMhTc-mAQ From Congressional Democrats, ‘Background on Unlawful Impoundment in President Trump’s Executive Orders’ https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/fact-sheets/background-unlawful-impoundment-president-trumps-executive-orders Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    56 分
  • Ep97. Does Diplomatic Secrecy actually Work? And What’s Next for Centre-Left Politics?
    2025/01/30
    In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today’s autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism. Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934 Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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    45 分