FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two.

In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell America” trade is a thing of the past, attempt to unpack the implications of President Trump’s tariffs deadline and try to figure out what’s next for the pound as markets bet on more Labour tax hikes in the autumn. Our analysts also say whether they would buy, sell or hold the Australian dollar, which last week soared following the RBA’s unexpected interest rate hold.

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Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June policy meeting, with FOMC members appearing divided over the path ahead for policy. Meanwhile, the latest data suggests that Britain’s labour market appears to be faltering, but what does this mean for the UK economy and the pound?

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The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years.

Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is holding up remarkably well. Will a US recession be avoided in 2025? And what do the latest UK data surprises mean for the Bank of England and the pound?

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