In the U.S., Trump’s popularity hit a new low of net -10 percentage points right as he clocked 100 days in office. Abroad, the political impact of Trump’s first 100 days is perhaps more tangible. In both Canada and Australia, the center-Left parties, which looked destined for defeat just months ago, came roaring back in recent elections.

A week ago, Canada’s Liberal Party won the most seats in parliament, ensuring Prime Minister Mark Carney would stay in office for the party’s fourth consecutive term in control of government. This past weekend, Australia’s Labour Party secured a second term for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, expanding its majority in what Australian analysts have been calling a landslide.

Joining me today are two friends of the podcast, author of The Writ, Eric Grenier, and author of 338 Canada, Philippe Fournier.

There’s rarely more attention paid to religion than when one pope passes and the College of Cardinals gathers to select another. Maybe it’s because the grandeur and secrecy of it all makes for a compelling news story, maybe it’s because 1.4 billion Catholics around the world really do care about the outcome, or maybe the weight of a millennia old tradition captures our imagination in a rapidly changing world.

Whatever the reason, it gives us on the GD POLITICS podcast an opportunity to reflect on the role that religion plays in society and politics today. And it’s a pretty complex story, at least in the US. After a rapid rise of people who don’t consider themselves part of any religion over the past 20 years, that trend line seems to have plateaued or maybe even reversed slightly.

On today’s podcast, I’m joined by someone who spends his days pouring over just about all the data out there on religion in America. Ryan Burge is a professor at Eastern Illinois University, he writes the Graphs About Religion Substack and until very recently was himself a Baptist Pastor.

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We discussed the search for a new pope, 100 days of Trump, played a game and answered questions from a sold out audience in New York City

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If the data tells a story, there’s one person you can count on to narrate it. Friend of the pod and chief data reporter at the Financial Times, John Burn-Murdoch, has for years been catching readers’ attention with charts that highlight just how society and politics are changing: social classes stratifying, innumeracy and illiteracy rising, birth rates dropping, gender gaps widening, American life expectancy stalling out.

Lately, his work on economic and social reactions to Trump’s second term have been literally jumping off the page. In a chart showing plummeting European tourism to the United States, Icelandic tourism decreased so much it got cropped off the page. The US economic uncertainty index grew so much it also extended off the axis, dwarfing the great recession and covid pandemic.

So I could think of no one better to talk about some of the ways the data is telling the story of our evolving American and global politics than John Burn-Murdoch himself. He joined me on the latests installment of the GD POLITICS podcast.

This is an audio preview of the full draft, which is available to paid subscribers here.

On Wednesday afternoon, Nate Silver and I went live on Substack to host our first ever 2028 Democratic primary draft. We said it was “way-too-early,” but I’m not sure that’s right. The potential candidates themselves certainly don’t seem to think so. Look at just about any ambitious Democrat and it will be clear that they are making moves: doing arena tours, starting podcasts, showcasing their abilities to “get sh*t done.” So we took the opportunity to put our early assumptions for 2028 on the record.

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Americans have had a lot to digest politically and economically over the past couple weeks. Trump’s volatile approach to tariffs began basically as soon as he took office, with Canada and Mexico being the first targets, but so-called “Liberation Day” marked the start of something akin to full blown chaos.

It’s one of those times when you want as up-to-date data as possible, and lucky for us, our guest had just that. Kristen Soltis Anderson is a longtime friend of the pod. She’s the founder of Echelon Insights, which works with Republican campaigns and is a contributor to the New York Times and CNN. Her latest verrified voter survey came out of the field this morning, and shows some concerning signs for Republicans on the economy.

The video version of this podcast is available to paid subscribers here.

Nathaniel Rakich, Mary Radcliffe and I say goodbye to FiveThirtyEight (and talk about Gavin Newsom's podcast).

The video version of this podcast is available to paid subscribers here.

We recorded this podcast before markets closed on Monday, but at one point during the day the S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory — 20 percent off its recent high — before rebounding. In the two days following President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement, the markets posted a 10 percent loss, the biggest two-day drop since the Covid crash.

On this episode of the podcast, Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe join me to talk about some of the math behind what Trump says he’s doing and how the public is reacting.