Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, with Trump and Putin notably excluded for strategic blunders. It’s a sharp, irreverent take on global leadership dynamics.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:58) - The Trade Value Leaders List

(03:53) - Controversial Picks and Listener Feedback

(06:27) - Deep Dives into Specific Leaders

(11:04) - Comparing Leaders to Basketball Players

(14:18) - The Legacy Question and Future Leaders

(20:27v Top Picks and Their Geopolitical Impact

(41:44) - Moral Equivalency Debate

(42:59) - Technical Difficulties and Top Two Leaders

(48:10) - Georgia Maloney's Economic Turnaround

(50:09) - Claudia Shane Baum's Leadership in Mexico

(52:01) - Discussion on Vladimir Putin's Leadership

(01:06:36) - Debate on Zelensky's Leadership

(01:19:02) - Xi Jinping's Strategic Missteps

(01:21:31) - China's Social Welfare Failures

(01:22:51) - Xi Jinping's Rise to Power

(01:24:35) - Xi Jinping's Nationalism and Economic Policies

(01:26:03) - Xi Jinping's Challenges and Leadership Style

(01:28:58) - Debating Xi Jinping's Impact

(01:37:38) - Trump's Leadership and Controversies

(01:42:07) - Evaluating Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies

(02:04:42) - Final Thoughts on Trump and Leadership Rankings

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter:

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:40) - Concept of Trade Value in Politics

(03:56) - Ranking Criteria and Methodology

(10:22) - Initial Rankings: 26-30

(13:30) - Discussion on Initial Rankings

(21:08) - Flawed but Effective Leaders

(29:53) - Unproven Gems

(38:13) - Competent but Boring Leaders

(41:51) - Diamonds Under Pressure

(44:52) - Lula and Bolsonaro: The Biden Comparison

(45:10) - Victor Orban: The Smart Tactician

(45:54) - Benjamin Netanyahu: The Politician's Politician

(46:55) - Javier Millet: Crypto Ron Paul Meets Steve Jobs

(48:01) - Narendra Modi: The Twilight of a Career

(52:40) - Diamonds Under Pressure: Eddie Rama and Cyril Osa

(53:16) - Naive Bukele: The Perfect Man for the Era

(58:52) - Shigeru Ishiba: The Tragic Hero of Japan

(01:02:25) - Top Leaders: From Pedro Sanchez to Georgia Maloney

(01:19:12) - Final Thoughts

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at...

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program

(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions

(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios

(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings

(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq

(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity

(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending

(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights

(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO

(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro