What if the best way to predict the housing market isn’t found in complex data, but simply by reading the price trends?

In this episode, Stefan Tsvetkov, founder of RealtyQuant, breaks down how simple price trend analysis can outperform traditional real estate forecasting models. He explores why relying solely on fundamentals may overlook key insights and explains the importance of understanding downside risk in today’s market. Through decades of data and hands-on experience, Stefan shares how investors can build confidence, reduce risk, and make smarter decisions by developing their data-driven intuition.

[00:01 - 05:45] What Price Alone Can Reveal

• Why price trends often outperform fundamentals in predictive accuracy.
• The significance of irrational overvaluation in housing markets.
• How using fewer variables may yield better clarity.

[05:46 - 10:05] The Power of Knowing Less but Knowing It Well

• How building your own data intuition boosts investing confidence.
• Why investors should stop overlooking downside risk.
• The need to simplify decision-making using clear signals.

[10:06 - 15:30] The Truth About Downside Risk

• What makes undervalued markets safer during downturns.
• How historical patterns can forecast future volatility.
• The importance of recognizing where you are in the market cycle.

[15:31 - 21:28] Stability Beats Hype

• How low-volatility markets can offer protection.
• Why investor hype can lead to greater exposure.
• What investors can learn from those who survived the 2008 crash.

[21:29 - 26:31] Making Rational Decisions Your Way

• Why trusting one’s own process matters more than any single model.
• The value of collecting multiple data points to cancel out bias.
• How mindset impacts action more than metrics alone.

Connect with Stefan:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefantsvetkov

Key Quotes:

“Real estate isn’t that hard. It’s driven by the same fundamentals: population, income, and housing supply.” - Stefan Tsvetkov

“If you don’t derive your intuition, you’re not going to take action.” - Stefan Tsvetkov

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