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  • 2025 5-15 Matters of Democracy "Big, Beautiful Bill", Elon, SCOTUS, Elections
    2025/05/21

    House lawmakers are debating President Trump's tax cut legislation, the centerpiece of his economic agenda, aiming for approval by Thursday. The bill renews the 2017 tax cuts and includes new benefits like eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay.

    A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis reportedly suggests Trump's proposed bill ("One Big Beautiful Bill Act") would be "More Beautiful for Top 10%" of households in terms of changes to household resources compared to the bottom 10%.

    Legal Developments: Supreme Court Ruling on Alien Enemies Act, The Court did not rule on whether the government can invoke the AEA itself, but on the due process afforded to detainees.

    Elon Musk's Stated Reduction in Political Spending

    The Department of Justice settled a $30 million wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of Ashli Babbitt, killed during the January 6th insurrection while breaching the Capitol, for $5 million.

    Pittsburgh Mayoral Primary: A centrist Democrat, Bill Peduto (incumbent) was defeated by a more moderate candidate, O'Connor, by a 53% to 47% margin.

    A centrist candidate, Nicușor Dan, won the runoff election with 53.6% of the vote, defeating a "far-right populist" George Simion (46.4%).

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    15 分
  • 2025 5-15 Matters of Democracy ICE Arrests, U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio and the "Big, Beautiful Bill"
    2025/05/20

    ICE Arrests of Public Officials: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka was arrested on May 9 outside an ICE detention center and charged with trespassing after attempting to inspect the facility with three Democratic members of Congress from New Jersey: Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman, LaMonica McIver, and Rob Menendez.

    Wisconsin Superior Court judge Hannah Dugan pleaded not guilty to charges of obstructing an official proceeding and concealing a person from arrest, stemming from allegedly helping a defendant leave the courthouse through a specific door.

    John Yoo stated there is "no justification" for invoking the Alien Enemies Act without Congressional ratification and court approval.

    Current Debt-to-GDP Ratio: As of May 2025, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 122%, a level last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and approaching the World War II peak of 126% in 2020

    Post-WWII: The ratio peaked at 106% in 1946 but significantly decreased to 32% by 1974 due to "economic growth and fiscal discipline."

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    14 分
  • 2025 may 8-9 Matters of Democracy New Pope
    2025/05/12

    The past few days have been marked by a mix of dramatic political maneuvering from the Trump administration, notable legal developments, and a significant religious event with the election of a new Pope. The Trump administration continues to engage in actions perceived as performative and lacking substantive planning, particularly regarding trade and immigration. Legal challenges and appointments also reflect ongoing political battles. Meanwhile, the Catholic Church elected an American Pope with a background and perceived theological leanings that are generating considerable discussion and contrasting reactions.

    the Trump administration's tendency towards dramatic announcements and initiatives that appear to lack detailed planning or significant real-world impact.

    Trade Deal Announcement:

    Surgeon General Nomination Changes:

    $1,000 Self-Deportation Incentive:

    Republican Efforts to Indoctrinate Through Education:

    Legal Battles and Political Influence on Institutions:

    Election of Pope Leo XIV: An American Pope with a Contrasting Profile

    The Concept of Malicious Compliance in Education

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    18 分
  • 2025 5-15 Matters of Democracy Biden, Trade, Deficit spending continues
    2025/05/19

    A major development is the announcement of former President Joe Biden's diagnosis with an "aggressive" form of prostate cancer that has metastasized to his bones.

    assessment of the outcome of Donald Trump's trade war with China, particularly his recent "trade deal."

    proposed Republican tax and spending bill, highlighting concerns about its impact on the national debt and the divisions within the Republican party regarding its provisions.

    The most significant finding is that the plan is projected to increase federal budget deficits. The source quotes the Wall Street Journal article: "The current proposal would increase projected budget deficits by nearly $3 trillion through 2034, locking in tax cuts and spending increases that outweigh reductions in spending on Medicaid and nutrition assistance."

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    13 分
  • 2025 5-15 Matters of Democracy SCOTUS, Senate, and Social Strife
    2025/05/16

    Supreme Court Considers Scope of Nationwide Injunctions in Birthright Citizenship Case

    Signs of Republican Resistance to Donald Trump in the Senate

    "Stupid Distraction": James Comey's Social Media Post and Subsequent Investigation:

    "Schadenfreude": Kid Rock's Hypocrisy Regarding Undocumented Immigrants:

    "Freudenfreude": Malicious Compliance in Salt Lake City Regarding Flag Law:

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    11 分
  • 2025 5-15 Matters of Democracy Voting Rights, Filibuster, Biden Book, Baseball, Economics
    2025/05/15

    Weakening of the Voting Rights Act (VRA): A major theme is the continued erosion of the VRA. A decade ago, a key pre-clearance provision was gutted by the Supreme Court, leading to the implementation of "Voter ID laws, and other measures meant to make it harder to vote, especially for poor and minority voters." The recent ruling by a three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit represents another significant setback.

    Circumventing the Filibuster: The proximate issue is California's EPA waiver for stricter emissions standards. While legislation to reverse this would be filibustered, Republicans aim to use the CRA, which allows Congress to cancel recent federal agency "rules" with a simple majority and prevents the agency from adopting a similar rule again.

    Potential Third Impeachment of Donald Trump

    Public Perception and Importance of the Biden Book "Original Sin": A new book by Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, detailing alleged infirmities of former President Biden,

    Commissioner Rob Manfred, who previously declined to reinstate banned players, has now announced that "ALL deceased individuals on the permanently banned list... are now un-banned." This includes Pete Rose.

    Market Recovery and Sentiment Plunge: Following a swift dip in April, the S&P 500 has seen a rapid recovery, with a 13.7% gain from April 8th to May 8th. This plunge sent many investor sentiment metrics into "extreme pessimism" territory,

    Attitudinal Pessimism vs Behavioral Restraint

    A notable risk is the record amount of household stock exposure at the start of 2025, based on asset allocation data. The market has priced in a tariff panic and reversal, but the next phase involves digesting the impact of ongoing, high tariff rates.

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    18 分
  • 2025 5-14 Matters of Democracy Habeas Corpus, DOJ, Gift plane, Medicaid cuts
    2025/05/14

    Threat to Habeas Corpus. Stephen Miller and Donald Trump have publicly stated that the White House is "actively looking at" suspending the writ of habeas corpus for individuals who have been or are being deported. The writ has been suspended four times in U.S. history, primarily by Congress. The one instance by a president (Lincoln during the Civil War) occurred during an actual rebellion and while Congress was out of session, a decision Congress later sustained.

    Stephen Miller's De Facto Control of the Department of Justice. Stephen Miller is reportedly running the Department of Justice (DoJ) despite not being the Attorney General (AG), lacking a law degree, and not being Senate-confirmed. Pam Bondi, the titled AG, is described as having a largely ceremonial role.

    Controversy Over Qatari Gift Plane for Air Force One. significant logistical challenges, including the immense cost (estimated at $1 billion or more) and time required to refit the plane with necessary secure communications, security features, and shielding to meet Air Force One standards.

    Republican Plans for Medicaid Cuts. Republicans in the House are seeking significant budget cuts, focusing on Medicaid as other major spending areas (military, Social Security, Medicare) are largely off-limits.

    Democrat John Ewing Jr. defeated three-term Republican incumbent Jean Stothert, winning 56% to 44%, Omaha is a purple city with a history of electing both Republican and Democratic mayors. decisive double-digit victory is unusual for Omaha/NE-02 and represents the kind of swing needed by Democrats to potentially retake the House in similar purple districts.

    Alabama Redistricting Ruling. The court expressed astonishment at the legislature's repeated disregard for its orders and suggested the state seemed intent on continuing to ignore rulings.

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    15 分
  • 2025 5-13 Matters of Democracy Tariffs, Drugs, Air Qatar, Afrikaner, DNC vice chair
    2025/05/13

    The US and China have agreed to a temporary, 90-day rollback of recently imposed tariffs. American duties on Chinese imports will decrease from 145% to 30%, while Chinese duties on American imports will drop from 125% to 10%. This is the fourth such adjustment in the last three months.

    The stock market remains down compared to when the administration took office (Dow Jones was 43,487.83 on January 20, now 42,410.10)

    an executive order on drug prices was announced. The order directs the HHS Secretary to propose price targets (ideally 50-90% lower) and negotiate with pharmaceutical companies.

    Dismissals at the Library of Congress and Copyright Office

    Air Qatar One and Business Deal

    Afrikaner Asylum Seekers

    David Hogg's DNC Vice-Chair Position in Jeopardy

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    14 分