If you’ve been around the block, you will likely have seen some eye-rolling use of evidence during meetings. Evidence can be used badly for many reasons; a misunderstanding of what conclusions can be drawn from it, or perhaps it has been cherry-picked to support a particular position.

In this episode, we unpick these issues with Professor Alex Edmans of London Business School. Alex recently published a book, ‘May Contain Lies’, which discusses the methodological, psychological and incentive problems surrounding evidence use.

We spend a decent amount of time on a core idea from the book, ‘The Ladder of Misinference’. If you think scientifically, there are no earth-shattering revelations here, but I really like it because it is a simple teachable framework that groups can adopt. Alex gives some great examples that everyone can understand and internalise.

The Ladder deals with the challenges of method, but that’s only half the story. We also have to beat the behavioural cards that nature has dealt us, e.g. confirmation bias.

And even if we beat the first two traps, incentives can nudge us away from saying what we really believe.

Key insights:

- How Alex tries to move beyond black-and-white thinking and engage with complexity - getting the right mix of data and stories

- Why do bad ideas stick - do you still 'Power Pose'?

- Changing minds – the power of good questions (there’s a great experiment on pianos and toilets that you can try at home).

- Trading off the short and long-term - why he chose the most critical agent to help him publish his book.

- Understanding neurological carrots and sticks - what happens when we put people in a brain scanner and give them statements they like and don’t?

- The state of debate around ESG and DEI – ideology, identity and pressures to conform.