https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

• Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
• Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
• Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
• The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
• What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
• What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

• The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
• What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
• How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
• The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
• However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
• Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
• Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
• Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

• Website: MarcToMarket.com;
• X: @marcmakingsense.

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.

• What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
• About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
• Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
• Background on the guest (23:05);
• If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
• Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

• Website: AmCiv.com;
• X: @FlipPidot;
• Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

• Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
• China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);
• There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)
• The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
• Don't fade the AI story (14:20);
• The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
• Background on the guest (22:30);
• Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
• Election discussion (28:17).

• Website: TgMacro.com;
• Twitter/X: @TgMacro;
• Substack: @TgMacro.

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering.

Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.

• The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);
• Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);
• Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);
• Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);
• Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);
• What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);
• Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);
• Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)

• Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com;
• X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

• The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37);
• The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
• The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
• How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
• Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31);
• AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
• Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47);
• Background on the guest (28:33);
• Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
• Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

• Website: AzoriaPartners.com;
• Substack: HeadofMacro.com;
• X: @j_fishback;
• LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased...

• Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10);
• The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27);
• Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41);
• The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32);
• Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29);
• Background on the guest (23:31);
• No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11);
• AI discussion (37:41).

• Website: Verecan.com;
• Podcast: Barenaked Money;
• LinkedIn.

Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks.

• The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18)
• The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18);
• The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43);
• Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31);
• Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56);
• Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41);
• Background on the guest (20:05);
• Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58);
• The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51).