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The Gartner Hype Cycle: A Roadmap for Navigating Emerging Technologies
- 2024/12/01
- 再生時間： 4 分
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あらすじ・解説
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a seminal tool developed by the research firm Gartner to chart the lifecycle of emerging technologies, from their initial introduction to their eventual mainstream adoption or decline. This cycle is divided into five distinct phases, each with its own set of characteristics, risks, and opportunities.
### Phase 1: Technology Trigger
The journey begins with the Technology Trigger, where a breakthrough or innovation captures the public's attention. This stage is marked by early proof-of-concept stories, media interest, and significant publicity, even though usable products may not yet exist and commercial viability is unproven. Prototypes and initial experiments spark excitement and set the stage for what is to come[1][3][4].
### Phase 2: Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more traction, it reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Here, media coverage and industry analysts amplify the excitement, leading to unrealistic expectations about the technology's capabilities. Success stories abound, but so do failures, and many companies take action without fully understanding the technology's limitations[1][3][4].
### Phase 3: Trough of Disillusionment
The enthusiasm eventually wanes as the Trough of Disillusionment sets in. The initial hype gives way to disappointment as the technology fails to deliver on its promises. Performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption, and financial returns that fall short of expectations lead to a decline in interest. Only those providers who can improve their products to meet early adopters' needs survive this phase[1][3][4].
### Phase 4: Slope of Enlightenment
As the technology matures, it enters the Slope of Enlightenment. Here, more realistic expectations emerge, and the benefits of the technology become clearer. Early adopters overcome initial hurdles, and second- and third-generation products appear, offering improved functionality. More enterprises begin to fund pilots, and a better understanding of the technology's potential use cases develops[1][3][4].
### Phase 5: Plateau of Productivity
Finally, the technology reaches the Plateau of Productivity, where mainstream adoption takes off. The criteria for assessing provider viability are well-defined, and the technology's broad market applicability is evident. This is the stage where the technology delivers real-world benefits, and its adoption becomes widespread[1][3][4].
### Practical Applications
The Gartner Hype Cycle is not just a theoretical model; it is a practical tool for businesses and investors. It helps in assessing the maturity and potential of emerging technologies, guiding decisions on where to invest and when to adopt new technologies. By understanding the current phase of a technology, businesses can manage risks more effectively and make informed decisions about their technology strategies[1][3][5].
In summary, the Gartner Hype Cycle provides a clear roadmap for navigating the complex and often tumultuous journey of emerging technologies. By recognizing the different phases and their associated risks and opportunities, stakeholders can make smarter, more informed decisions, ultimately leading to more successful technology adoption and innovation.
### Phase 1: Technology Trigger
The journey begins with the Technology Trigger, where a breakthrough or innovation captures the public's attention. This stage is marked by early proof-of-concept stories, media interest, and significant publicity, even though usable products may not yet exist and commercial viability is unproven. Prototypes and initial experiments spark excitement and set the stage for what is to come[1][3][4].
### Phase 2: Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more traction, it reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Here, media coverage and industry analysts amplify the excitement, leading to unrealistic expectations about the technology's capabilities. Success stories abound, but so do failures, and many companies take action without fully understanding the technology's limitations[1][3][4].
### Phase 3: Trough of Disillusionment
The enthusiasm eventually wanes as the Trough of Disillusionment sets in. The initial hype gives way to disappointment as the technology fails to deliver on its promises. Performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption, and financial returns that fall short of expectations lead to a decline in interest. Only those providers who can improve their products to meet early adopters' needs survive this phase[1][3][4].
### Phase 4: Slope of Enlightenment
As the technology matures, it enters the Slope of Enlightenment. Here, more realistic expectations emerge, and the benefits of the technology become clearer. Early adopters overcome initial hurdles, and second- and third-generation products appear, offering improved functionality. More enterprises begin to fund pilots, and a better understanding of the technology's potential use cases develops[1][3][4].
### Phase 5: Plateau of Productivity
Finally, the technology reaches the Plateau of Productivity, where mainstream adoption takes off. The criteria for assessing provider viability are well-defined, and the technology's broad market applicability is evident. This is the stage where the technology delivers real-world benefits, and its adoption becomes widespread[1][3][4].
### Practical Applications
The Gartner Hype Cycle is not just a theoretical model; it is a practical tool for businesses and investors. It helps in assessing the maturity and potential of emerging technologies, guiding decisions on where to invest and when to adopt new technologies. By understanding the current phase of a technology, businesses can manage risks more effectively and make informed decisions about their technology strategies[1][3][5].
In summary, the Gartner Hype Cycle provides a clear roadmap for navigating the complex and often tumultuous journey of emerging technologies. By recognizing the different phases and their associated risks and opportunities, stakeholders can make smarter, more informed decisions, ultimately leading to more successful technology adoption and innovation.