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In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called “backcasting”, a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan.

We discuss:

• Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Bill Belichick [1:30];
• Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:45];
• Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:30];
• Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15];
• The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [32:15];
• A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [41:00];
• The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:30];
• Why Annie likes to “quit fast,” and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:45];
• Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [55:15];
• The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:04:45];
• The decision matrix, and the “resulting” heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:30];
• The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:21:45];
• Poker as a model system for life [1:31:30];
• How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick’s decision-making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:35:15];
• What did we learn about decision-making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:39:30];
• The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:43:00];
• The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:49:45];
• Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:52:15];
• The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:00:30];
• Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:11:00];
• The benefits of “backcasting” (and doing pre-mortems) [2:13:30];
• Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:21:30]; and
• More.

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View the Show Notes Page for This Episode

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Sebastian Junger is an award-winning journalist, bestselling author, and previous guest on The Drive. In this episode, Sebastian returns to discuss his latest book, In My Time of Dying: How I Came Face to Face with the Idea of an Afterlife. This episode delves into Sebastian's profound near-death experience and how it became the catalyst for his exploration of mortality, the afterlife, and the mysteries of the universe. They discuss the secular meaning of what it means to be sacred, the intersection of physics and philosophy, and how our beliefs shape our approach to life and death. He also shares how this experience has profoundly changed him, giving him a renewed perspective on life—one filled with awe, gratitude, deeper emotional awareness, and a more engaged approach to living.

We discuss:

• How Sebastian’s near-death experience shaped his thinking about mortality and gave him a reverence for life [3:00];
• The aneurysm that led to Sebastian’s near-death experience [6:30];
• Emergency room response, his subsequent reflections on the event, and the critical decisions made by the medical team [16:30];
• Sebastian’s reaction to first learning he nearly died, and the extraordinary skill of the medical team that save his life [26:00];
• Sebastian’s near-death experience [37:00];
• The psychological impact of surviving against overwhelming odds [48:00];
• Ignored warning signs: abdominal pain and a foreshadowing dream before the aneurysm rupture [54:30];
• Sebastian's recovery, his exploration of near-death experiences, and the psychological turmoil he faced as he questioned the reality of his survival [58:15];
• A transformative encounter with a nurse who encouraged Sebastian to view his near-death experience as sacred [1:03:30];
• How Sebastian has changed: a journey toward emotional awareness and fully engaging with life [1:08:45];
• The possibility of an afterlife, and how quantum mechanics challenges our understanding of existence [1:15:15];
• Quantum paradoxes leading to philosophical questions about the nature of reality, existence after death, and whether complete knowledge could be destructive [1:26:00];
• The sweet spot of uncertainty: exploring belief in God, post-death existence, and meaning in life [1:37:00];
• The transformative power of experiencing life with awe and gratitude [1:53:00]; and
• More.

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