https://www.alainguillot.com/trump-and-the-prediction-market/

Today, half of market and political predictors are baking in glory, while the other half are retrieving into a dark corner of the internet to find their own spin on why/how they went wrong.

The demand for active stock pickers, market pundits, and fund managers has never waned. Though passive funds now hold more U.S. stock than active ones, there’s still a widespread belief that some people can “pick the winners.” Even if the data suggests otherwise, we keep searching for the person who can give us an edge.

With Donald Trump’s election, the modern-day prophets have returned in force. Everyone has a take, a hot prediction, a “plan” for the markets and economy under Trump’s second term. They’re quick to say, “Here’s what will happen next,” or “You should buy this, sell that.” But what’s the cost when they’re wrong? When your savings are on the line, every false prediction stings.

Those who predicted Trump’s success are stepping into the spotlight, basking in their brief moment of accuracy. But we should remember that these predictions, while sometimes right, often carry immense risk. The bigger question is: what happens to the countless wrong predictions that quietly fade away? And those who predicted a win for Kamala Harris, what are they saying now that their prediction proved wrong?

So, what’s the best approach for an investor today? Ignore the noise. Ignore the pundits. When Trump’s presidency or any major event tempts you to trade on someone else’s gut feeling, remember that even the experts are often guessing.

Yes, it’s uncomfortable to sit with uncertainty. But in reality, the honest answer is usually the simplest one: “I don’t know.” It’s a response that feels unsatisfying because it lacks certainty. And yet, the path to financial stability often lies in acknowledging what we don’t know and focusing on the fundamentals.

As much as we might want someone to tell us what’s coming next, the best investment strategy is often to stick to what we know works. The stock market will rise and fall, elections will come and go, and financial “sorcerers” will continue casting their spells. But the real power lies in tuning them out and investing based on reason—not magic.

The Trump Factor and the Return of the SoothsayersWhat Can We Do? Stop Listening