Trump Extends EU Tariff Deadline to July, Avoiding Immediate Trade Escalation and Giving Negotiators More Time
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Trump Extends EU Tariff Deadline to July, Avoiding Immediate Trade Escalation and Giving Negotiators More Time
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President Donald Trump has granted the European Union an extension on looming tariff hikes, pushing the deadline for a deal to July 9th after a recent phone call with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. This extension comes after threats of raising tariffs on EU goods from the current rate of 10 percent to 20 percent if a deal isn’t reached. According to Politico, these tariffs were originally set to increase at the start of June, but the extension gives negotiators just over a month to avoid a significant escalation.
The extension follows Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Policy, announced in early April, which triggered new U.S. duties against trading partners deemed to have “nonreciprocal” trade arrangements—including the EU. EY Tax News reports that, since April, the U.S. has been applying a 10 percent country-specific tariff rate on many EU imports, and that this rate could be doubled to 20 percent in July unless substantial progress is made in negotiations. EU officials have stated they are preparing countermeasures but remain open to talks.
On the economic front, the European Commission recently analyzed the effects of U.S. tariff hikes up to early April. They project that EU GDP would face a moderate reduction—roughly 0.2%—primarily due to weaker exports to the United States, one of the EU's largest export markets. European exports to the U.S. are expected to drop by between 1.1 and 1.5 percent as American firms and households pull back on European imports in response to these tariffs. However, some of that impact is offset as EU exporters pick up market share in third countries, partly due to the stronger U.S. dollar making American goods less competitive abroad.
Before this trade conflict escalated, the average U.S. tariff on EU imports was just under 1.5 percent, but the new measures bring the effective average rate close to 10 percent, according to analysis from Bruegel, with the possibility of this climbing further to 20 percent next month. The EU did suspend some planned retaliation earlier in the spring to allow more space for negotiations, but pressure is mounting to respond decisively if talks with the Trump administration break down.
A key factor to watch in the coming weeks is whether the EU and U.S. can de-escalate, or if the transatlantic trade relationship heads for a full-blown tariff war, which would have ripple effects across global supply chains. For your weekly tariff tracker, the current U.S. tariff rate on most EU goods sits at 10 percent; this rises to 20 percent in July unless a deal is reached.
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