"US Housing Market Cools: Affordability Crunch and Shifting Trends"

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"US Housing Market Cools: Affordability Crunch and Shifting Trends"

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The US housing market is showing clear signs of cooling as of mid-July 2025. Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, with the average 30-year fixed rate hovering near 6.8 percent, almost double what buyers saw just four years ago. Elevated rates are dampening demand, pushing many potential buyers to the sidelines and making homeownership less attainable for millions. This affordability crunch has caused existing-home sales to dip 0.7 percent year-over-year in June 2025, while median prices have stagnated or even declined in over half of the nation’s 100 largest markets.

Price growth slowed to just 1.3 percent annually in June, the weakest pace in two years. Markets like Austin, Tampa, and several Florida cities, including Cape Coral, have seen prices drop significantly, with Austin experiencing a decline of more than 100,000 dollars from peak values. The condo segment is under even more pressure, down 1.4 percent year-over-year, compared to a still-positive, but slowing, 1.6 percent rise for single-family homes.

Inventory is on the rise, now at a 4.6-month supply nationally, up sharply from 3.8 months in 2024. Listings are sitting longer, and there has been a 47 percent increase in properties taken off the market without selling—a symptom of sellers not finding willing or able buyers. Regionally, the West and South are seeing the sharpest declines in both sales and prices, while the Midwest and Northeast are more stable.

On the supply side, builders are cautious. The National Association of Home Builders forecasts a decline in single-family housing starts for the rest of 2025, citing a mix of demand uncertainty and rising material and labor costs. In response to these headwinds, industry leaders are doubling down on market intelligence: the National Association of Realtors just launched a new data dashboard to help agents better analyze affordability and navigate shifting market trends.

Compared to recent years’ red-hot market, today’s landscape is marked by moderation and increased risk for both buyers and sellers. Unless mortgage rates drop further—NAR projects that a fall near 6 percent could add more than 5 million qualifying households—the market seems likely to remain sluggish, with only modest relief forecast for 2026.

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