US Housing Market Sees Mixed Signals Amid Affordability Woes and Inventory Shifts

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US Housing Market Sees Mixed Signals Amid Affordability Woes and Inventory Shifts

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The US housing industry this week is showing mixed but slightly improved sentiment as builder confidence in July edged up following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose to 33, up a single point from June, but this remains among its lowest readings in more than two years. Key challenges remain: affordability is at historic lows and elevated mortgage rates continue to depress demand. The average 30-year US mortgage rate climbed to 6.75 percent, its second consecutive weekly increase, a level on par with rates a year ago. These elevated borrowing costs are a major barrier for prospective buyers and are expected to keep the market sluggish through the remainder of 2025.

Inventory, however, has seen a notable uptick. Active housing inventory in June surged 17 percent year over year to 1.36 million homes, nearing a six-year high. This growth in available homes has helped nudge the national market closer to balance, with 22 of the 50 largest metro areas now considered neutral, up from just eight markets a year ago.

Price adjustments are increasingly common as sellers try to attract limited buyers. A record 26.6 percent of listings saw price cuts in June. Nationally, the typical home value now stands at 367,369 dollars. Some metro areas are experiencing annual price growth, most notably Cleveland and New York, while others such as Austin, Tampa, and Miami are posting sharp declines.

New home prices have declined in several pandemic hot spots. Jacksonville, Naples, and Miami saw new home prices drop between 13 and 22 percent since their peaks. Meanwhile, markets like San Jose remain exceptionally expensive, with average new-home prices around 1.8 million dollars.

Builders and industry leaders are responding to these challenges by increasing incentives, implementing average price cuts of 5 percent, and lobbying for further policy reforms. Still, with single-family home permits down 6 percent year-to-date and builder traffic at a multi-year low, industry expectations for starts remain weak, a contrast to the slightly more active environment prior to 2023.

Trade policy uncertainty, supply chain volatility caused by tariff threats, and a slow drop-off in inflation have further complicated recovery for both buyers and builders. The market is showing early signs of stabilization, but affordability and borrowing constraints remain the dominant themes in the near term.

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