US Housing Market Struggles Amid High Rates, Affordability Woes

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US Housing Market Struggles Amid High Rates, Affordability Woes

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The US housing industry over the past 48 hours reflects a market struggling to regain momentum as high mortgage rates, shifts in consumer behavior, and weak affordability continue to dominate headlines. Recent data shows house price growth is slowing sharply: the ICE Home Price Index reveals annual home price growth cooled to just 1.3 percent year over year in early June, the slowest pace since mid 2023. In fact, single-family home prices are up only 1.6 percent from a year ago, and condo prices have turned negative, falling 1.3 percent overall, with major declines in Florida cities like Cape Coral, where condo prices are down over 12 percent since last year. More than half of the top 100 US housing markets now report condo prices below last year’s mark.

Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. The latest average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.81 percent, up slightly from last week, and experts anticipate rates will stay in the 6.5 to 6.7 percent range throughout 2025. This continued strain on affordability has pushed more buyers to the sidelines. Data from the National Association of Realtors and other sources confirm that existing home sales are notably weak; May sales fell 0.7 percent from April. The US is on track for around 4 million total sales in 2025, which would mark the lowest levels since 1995. First-time homebuyer participation has hit record lows this year, and the number of renters reached a historic 46 million households as more people are priced out of the market.

Builders face pressure as well. In May, new home sales dropped 6 percent compared to a year ago, causing construction activity to slow, particularly in the critical starter-home segment. Meanwhile, inventory is finally rising but largely made up of higher-priced homes held by Baby Boomers, contributing to a generational divide and further limiting access for younger buyers.

Industry leaders are responding with a mix of cautious optimism and realism. Some are calling for targeted government intervention or incentives for first-time buyers. Many expect that only a significant decline in mortgage rates or a shift in inventory mix could restore momentum, but for now most forecast continued slow growth, elevated rents, and a challenging landscape for both buyers and sellers compared to previous years.

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