US Steel Tariff Hike Threatens Brazil Economy with 50 Percent Levy and Potential 11 Percent Export Decline
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US Steel Tariff Hike Threatens Brazil Economy with 50 Percent Levy and Potential 11 Percent Export Decline
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As Brazil's largest steel buyer, the U.S. purchased $5.29 billion in Brazilian steel and aluminum in 2024, representing nearly 40% of Brazil's global exports in these sectors. Economists anticipate an 11% drop in Brazilian steel shipments to the U.S. this year, translating to 700,000 metric tons of lost production.
This tariff hike comes on top of the 10% base tariff implemented on April 5th that applies to all goods imported into the United States. The Brazilian government expressed regret over this decision in an official statement, noting that the U.S. has maintained a significant trade surplus with Brazil for the past 15 years, totaling $410 billion. In 2024 alone, the U.S. enjoyed a $28.6 billion surplus in combined goods and services with Brazil.
Brazilian industry leaders are particularly concerned about the secondary effects of Trump's trade policies, including potential global recession, volatile exchange rates, commodity price fluctuations, and Chinese goods being redirected to other markets including Brazil. The Brazilian Automotive Manufacturers Association has warned about possible reactions from Mexico, suggesting that Mexican auto exports previously destined for the U.S. might be redirected to Brazil.
There is some potential relief on the horizon. Brazil hopes to leverage its complementary industrial relationship with the U.S., particularly in steel, to negotiate exemptions or quotas. Brazilian steel exports to the United States are concentrated in semi-finished products used by the U.S. steel industry, which lacks self-sufficiency in this area.
Meanwhile, a federal appeals court has temporarily reinstated President Trump's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs while litigation over their legality continues, after the U.S. Court of International Trade had briefly struck them down.
The Brazilian government is evaluating all possible courses of action to ensure reciprocity in bilateral trade, including potentially bringing the matter to the World Trade Organization.
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