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During a debate on the Federal budget, Herbert Humphry, the late, great Senator from Minnesota, said, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon it starts to add up.” The same thing can be said for today's 401(k) program, except you need to change the B to a T.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 7,834 active 401(k) plans with 90 million participants. The value of their combined investments is in excess of $12 trillion. That's a number twice the size of the federal budget, and number that has the full attention of Wall Street’s bean counters.

What is unique about the 401K program is that it requires the individual investor to make their own investment decisions. But their choices are limited to a menu of mutual funds selected by a broker who is compensated by the funds they place in the menu. In this episode of my podcast, I will provide data on how the 401(k) pie is currently being distributed.

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The stock market loves good news and hates bad news. The problem is that it has trouble deciding which is which. It also reserves the right to pause and change its mind midstream, without prior notice to the investing public.

Last week, the US Congress passed what the media refers to as “The Big, Beautiful, Bill. It covers a sweeping number of topics that will impact the trajectory of our society and economy for years to come. Many of the issues addressed in the Big, Beautiful, Bill are social in nature and of minor concern to the market. But there are two areas covered in the bill that have significant implications for the market’s future: Energy and interest rates.

The response of the 90 million Americans with 401(k) plans to this hazy forecast could be one of confusion and despair. But history tells us that the American economy has faced many uncertain times. And each and every time has emerge bigger and stronger. If the stock markets initial response to the Big Bill is negative, those 401(k) participants who are index funds investors will be able to buy additional shares at a reduced price and lower their average cost. If the markets response is positive, the total value of 401(k) index fund portfolios will increase in value.

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The normal half time segment of a televised football game, begins with a petite blond female reporter accosting the loosing coach with a mike and screeching at him, “Your losing by 49 points, what do you need to change in the second half?” The answer is obvious to everyone except the blond reporter: Score more points.

In this exciting and insightful episode of my podcast, I will discuss what the experts predicted the market would do during the first half of 2025, and report on what really happened. This will offer you an opportunity to reflect on how your retirement dollars performed during this period and what you need to do to make the second half a winner.

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