In this compelling episode, Dr. Ely Ratner, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, sits down with Ray and Jim to discuss his provocative Foreign Affairs essay "The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact."

Dr. Ratner argues that China's rapid military modernization and regional ambitions necessitate a fundamental shift from America's traditional "hub-and-spoke" bilateral alliance system to an integrated multilateral defense pact. His proposal centers on creating a collective defense arrangement between the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines—not a pan-regional "Asian NATO," but a focused alliance among strategically aligned nations.

Unlike failed attempts in the 1950s-60s (SEATO), today's conditions are uniquely favorable. These four countries share unprecedented strategic alignment, advanced military capabilities, and growing intra-Asian cooperation. The Philippines has become "ground zero" for regional security, with China's illegal actions in the West Philippine Sea galvanizing allied support.

Ratner tackles key criticisms head-on: Would Australia really fight over South China Sea disputes? He points to Australia's strategic awakening, with China conducting live-fire exercises requiring Australian airspace closures. Regarding U.S. reliability concerns, he notes that Indo-Pacific defense policy has remained consistent across administrations, unlike NATO rhetoric.

The conversation explores practical hurdles, including Senate ratification requirements, domestic politics in allied nations, and the risk of provoking China. Ratner suggests much operational integration could proceed through executive agreements, building on existing frameworks like AUKUS and the Quad.

A central theme addresses the tension between deterrence and provocation. Ratner argues that maintaining the status quo would embolden Chinese ambitions, making conflict more likely. While a formal alliance may raise short-term tensions, it's ultimately stabilizing by making aggression prohibitively costly.

The discussion covers how ASEAN and India might respond. Ratner emphasizes the alliance would complement, not compete with, existing institutions. ASEAN would retain its convening role, while India could continue bilateral cooperation with the U.S. without joining the pact.

Addressing Secretary Hegseth's push for increased allied defense spending, Ratner advocates a holistic view beyond just budget percentages—including access, basing rights, and operational contributions. He stresses the need for political space in allied capitals to justify deeper U.S. ties.

Ratner describes 2021-2025 as a transitional period, moving from dialogue to unprecedented action. Recent initiatives have laid groundwork for deeper integration, with allies willing to take steps previously unimaginable.

Key Takeaways:

- China's military rise demands integrated allied response

- Strategic alignment among U.S., Japan, Australia, Philippines is unprecedented

- Collective defense would create mutual obligations beyond current bilateral treaties

- Implementation faces political challenges but operational foundations already exist

- Deterrence goal: prevent conflict by raising costs of aggression

Dr. Ratner concludes that preventing Chinese regional hegemony requires "big ideas" and political heavy lifting. The window for action is now, before China achieves its revisionist ambitions.

Follow Dr. Ratner's work at The Marathon Initiative

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome National Review senior political correspondent & Washington Post columnist Jim Geraghty for a wide-ranging discussion that moves from how intelligence agencies are increasingly convinced that Beijing covered up COVID-19's laboratory origins to China's heavy influence on U.S. and international institutions to America's shifting global media strategy under Donald Trump.

Geraghty, who began investigating COVID's origins in March 2020, discusses recent German intelligence reports confirming an 80-95% likelihood that COVID-19 escaped from a Wuhan laboratory. He explains why this matters beyond the pandemic: "I'm trying to think of anything any government has done that is more harmful than the ultimate effect of the COVID pandemic." The conversation explores how China's cover-up cost the world "a year of our lives" and why real accountability remains elusive.

The discussion examines how the WHO fumbled its COVID response, with China effectively having "veto power" over declaring a global pandemic. Geraghty argues that international health institutions may never recover the trust they lost during the pandemic, creating dangerous vulnerabilities for future health crises.

From Hollywood's Transformers movies featuring heroic Chinese military scenes to NBA censorship of Hong Kong support, Geraghty details how China has successfully influenced American institutions. "We didn't bring our values to China. We're bringing their values here," he explains, describing how American organizations increasingly behave with Chinese-style authoritarianism.

With 90% of Radio Free Asia's staff facing layoffs and Voice of America's future uncertain, the hosts and Geraghty discuss the strategic implications of dismantling America's global media presence. While Russia and China invest billions in propaganda, the US is "disarming" its information warfare capabilities just as authoritarian influence operations intensify.

The conversation turns to how Trump's unpredictable approach affects Indo-Pacific allies, with Australia's recent elections influenced by concerns about potential US abandonment. Geraghty warns that allies watching Trump's treatment of Ukraine and Canada are asking: "That could happen to us."

Geraghty describes the emerging "axis of A-holes" - Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea - working together against Western interests, citing examples like Houthis avoiding attacks on Chinese and Russian vessels in the Red Sea.

This episode provides essential analysis for anyone following US-China relations, pandemic accountability, and America's evolving role in global information warfare.

Follow Jim Geraghty on X, @JimGeraghty, and at the National Review or Washington Post

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Cleo Paskal, a leading Indo-Pacific analyst and non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, to unpack the growing threat of China’s gray zone influence in the Pacific Islands and why it matters for the United States and its allies.

Paskal explains the strategic significance of the Pacific Islands, which include U.S. territories and the three Compact of Free Association states—Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. These islands serve as America’s “gateway to Asia,” enabling military access and power projection across the Pacific to key allies like Japan and Taiwan. Historically, whoever controls these islands can threaten the U.S. mainland and dominate Pacific trade routes—a reality recognized since the days of President McKinley and the Spanish-American War.

Cleo prefers the Filipino term “ICAD” (Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive, and Deceptive) over “gray zone” to describe China’s activities. She details how Beijing uses a “braided” approach that combines commercial investments, strategic infrastructure, and criminal enterprises. Chinese-linked businesses often promise development but end up facilitating elite capture, corruption, and even state capture, while most of the population sees little benefit. Activities include:

• Bribery and elite capture of local officials
• Strategic port and real estate acquisitions near sensitive military sites
• Criminal networks trafficking drugs, gambling, and human trafficking
• Political interference, media manipulation, and lawfare against local opposition

The podcast explores how China’s influx of money and promises of quick infrastructure projects are hard for small island economies to resist—especially when Western aid is slow, bureaucratic, or absent. However, Cleo notes that Chinese economic engagement often benefits only a narrow elite and can leave countries worse off, both economically and environmentally. She argues that the West, especially the U.S., must offer meaningful economic alternatives and support for good governance, not just military or diplomatic engagement.

Despite U.S. political polarization, Cleo notes that support for the Pacific Islands remains bipartisan, especially regarding the renewal of the Compacts of Free Association. She also stresses that Pacific Islanders view the U.S. differently from former colonial powers, seeing America as a beacon of liberty and democracy—an image China is actively trying to undermine through narrative warfare.

This episode makes clear that the Pacific Islands are not just remote dots on the map but are central to U.S. security, the rules-based order, and the future of the Indo-Pacific. China’s gray zone campaign is a sophisticated, multi-layered threat that demands urgent, coordinated action from the U.S. and its allies—combining hard security, economic opportunity, and support for local agency and resilience.

Follow our podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky

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