It's easy to conclude that we are a violent species. Just look at the state of the world.

In a quite brilliant book, Professor Christopher Blattman argues that history books can give a misleading impression: on most days, war doesn't happen.

Blattman has read everything. He has talked to the street gangs of Chicago and drug lords in Colombia. He summarises his vast knowledge with five main reasons why going to war - rathe than making peace - seems to happen. Armed (pardon the pun) with this knowledge, policy makers can get better at peace making.

But, he warns, most policies are wrong, or likley to be. Grand, big theories of everything are best avoided. He urges a 'marginal' approach, perhaps best described as 'suck it and see'. Take baby steps and prepare to fail. But keep going. Small steps may mean you won't make big mistakes.

It's hard to end wars but they always do. It's the terms that matter. It looks like Putin is going to win in Ukraine.

Even more seriously, are China and America stuck in the same trap that drove ancient Sparta and Athens to war? That's the famous Thucydides Trap.

A truly fabulous discussion. Our thanks to Shane.

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