In this monthly book club edition of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff and Capital Gains to unpack Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. The pair probe Dalio’s sweeping macroeconomic theories, debt cycles, historical analogies, and technology’s role in shaping the future. They scrutinize the credibility of Dalio’s claims, the real-world implications of sovereign debt risks, and the potential misapplications of macro trading skills to macroeconomic policymaking. The conversation winds through AI’s effect on productivity, the staying power of elites through societal upheavals, and even the viability of crypto as a hedge. It's a rich analysis with sharp skepticism and economic nuance.

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:01:38] Initial thoughts on Dalio’s book

[00:05:26] Short vs. long debt cycles

[00:06:40] Historical cycle timing critique

[00:07:24] Pre-WWI and 1930s comparison

[00:10:11] Disconnection between theories and globalization

[00:16:25] Institutional trust and economic cycles

[00:18:18] Credibility of Dalio’s theories

[00:21:26] Macro trading vs. macro policy

[00:24:42] Trump-era policy implications

[00:26:19] Foreign debt selling as signal

[00:28:14] Put options in tail events

[00:32:35] Buffett’s strategic puts example

[00:35:32] Technology optimism in final chapter

[00:40:25] AI effects on labor, productivity

[00:45:43] Older professionals using AI

[00:47:00] Book’s global bearish stance

[00:51:22] Historical elite persistence examples

[00:53:45] Bitcoin in crisis scenarios

[01:01:54] Sovereign wealth fund proposal critique

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

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In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Guowei from the substack "Yummy Century Stocks" for an extensive discussion on EchoStar (SATS). They dig into the company’s complex structure, diving deep into its failing satellite and pay TV segments, and the potential trapped value in its wireless spectrum assets. The conversation unpacks regulatory drama with the FCC, speculation around a Trump Mobile tie-in, and the looming potential for bankruptcy. With both long and short positions from top investors and a potential valuation ranging from zero to $100+ per share, this is one of the market's most fascinating distressed plays.____________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces EchoStar and guest[00:02:54] Overview of EchoStar’s three business units[00:06:54] Wireless network specs and performance issues[00:11:36] Realistic market challenges and consumer view[00:17:08] Valuation estimate for SATS spectrum[00:19:42] Pushback on spectrum market and caps[00:22:58] Changing spectrum demand and infrastructure[00:24:45] Three core SATS spectrum bands[00:25:32] AWS-3 and AWS-4 deep dive[00:29:47] FCC’s current investigation and history[00:34:00] Simington’s resignation and FCC politics[00:35:02] Trump intervenes, Trump Mobile theory[00:39:19] Potential regulatory settlement outcomes[00:41:09] Market comps for spectrum valuation[00:44:39] Unique legal nature of spectrum assets[00:47:51] Why bankruptcy could benefit EchoStar[00:50:44] Impact of bankruptcy on FCC issues[00:53:21] Risks to spectrum ownership in court[00:54:52] Equity protection in bankruptcy scenario[00:57:42] Possible strategic paths and constraints[01:00:42] Equity thesis despite complex unlock path[01:04:12] Convert notes vs equity pre-bankruptcy[01:07:00] Market speculation and timing expectations[01:08:30] Bankruptcy analogs and comparison to GGP[01:09:34] Challenges to network scaling and valueLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen of Rhizome Partners, one of the platform's most popular and deeply knowledgeable guests in real estate investing. Fresh from attending NAREIT, Bill unpacks trends across the public and private real estate sectors, offering a unique vantage on REIT performance, multifamily fundamentals, and the developing divergence in valuation metrics. The discussion spans topics from rent regulation in New York, to capital allocation discipline among REITs, and dives into lesser-understood niches like grocery-anchored retail and net lease offices. Andrew and Bill blend data with real-time market observations to help listeners better understand value opportunities in today’s real estate landscape.

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[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Bill Chen

[00:01:38] Bill recaps NAREIT conference takeaways

[00:02:11] Public REITs vs private market stress

[00:05:26] Construction collapse, capex outlook

[00:12:18] Sunbelt rent growth and pipeline

[00:21:36] Public REITs IRR and exit caps

[00:27:20] NYC resi optimism vs politics

[00:29:20] Clipper's challenges and NYC outlook

[00:31:01] Sunbelt policy contrasts and rent trends

[00:33:56] Postmortem: REIT investment performance

[00:36:05] Tech and operational edge in REITs

[00:37:11] Resilience, affordability, and dividends

[00:44:14] AI impact on operations and leasing

[00:48:56] Alexander’s, office market bifurcation

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer