エピソード

  • What Risks Behind US Stock Euphoria? Barron's Market Analysis*
    2025/07/20

    Barron's July 21 issue reveals US stocks in rare "euphoria" state with Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model at +0.49 and 100% equity allocation. M2 money supply hits record $21.86 trillion with 19 consecutive months of growth providing liquidity support. Tech sector leads gains with XLK up 1.97% weekly and 12.20% YTD. Traditional industries undergo value transformation: Casella achieves rapid growth through small waste company acquisitions, while Deere revolutionizes agriculture with AI precision farming. Legal rulings on social media algorithm liability may reshape tech giants' operations, potentially shifting content recommendations from "third-party speech" to "first-party platform speech," significantly increasing legal risks and compliance costs.

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    13 分
  • Oil Giants' $90 Survival Line | BofA July 18 Report
    2025/07/20

    BofA Securities' July 18, 2025 report reveals European oil majors face a harsh reality: despite 10% market cap gains, they require an average $90/bbl Brent to cover capex and shareholder returns. Q2 2025 shows a $13.2bn organic FCF deficit with net debt rising for the seventh consecutive quarter. Shell emerges as the only company achieving organic breakeven at $70/bbl, while Galp shows strongest earnings upside. The projected $20bn+ annual cash flow gap, primarily filled through asset disposals, signals the industry's entry into the "Big Energy Trilemma" era.

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    13 分
  • What Concerns Behind US Stock Highs? WSJ 7.19 Analysis
    2025/07/20

    WSJ July 19-20 weekend edition shows US recession probability dropped from 45% to 33%, Q2 GDP growth forecast raised to 2.2%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, up 0.6% and 1.5% respectively. Tech giants wage fierce AI talent war with Meta offering $300M+ compensation packages to poach OpenAI researchers. Chevron's $53B Hess acquisition approved, Reckitt divests $4.8B home care business. ACA health plans seek double-digit 2026 rate increases. AI regulation divide intensifies as Meta refuses EU code of conduct citing uncertainty. Defense tech Anduril develops "attritable" drones for collaborative warfare. Consumer side sees e.l.f. success through Gen Z marketing, McDonald's classic product return triggers buying frenzy.

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    15 分
  • the Wall Street Journal July 16 Full Review
    2025/07/16

    Wall Street Journal July 16 authoritative report: US June inflation rebounded to 2.7%, core inflation reached 2.9%, with significant price increases in tariff-sensitive goods (furniture, toys, apparel). Tariff revenue hit $27B (3x YoY), Goldman estimates US consumers bear 70% direct costs. Tech positioning: Google's $25B AI data center investment, Apple's $500M rare earth magnet procurement deal. Housing median price record $412.5K, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup Q2 earnings beat expectations, but private credit risks trigger warnings.

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    5 分
  • UBS Bombshell: Dollar Dominance Under Threat as $13.4T Selloff Looms
    2025/07/16

    UBS July 14 report exposes four structural risks to USD system: net foreign debt surge from 9% to 88%, global reserve "overweight" at 58%, G10 nations holding $13.4T unhedged positions. Forecasts EUR/USD at 1.23 by end-2025, with every 10% dollar decline boosting EM relative performance by 9%. Dollar "overholding" reversal could trigger $670B selloff from just 5% position adjustment, reshaping global asset allocation landscape.

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    5 分
  • Goldman Sachs Alert: EV Price War Intensifies with 8.24% Discount Rate Peak
    2025/07/16

    Goldman Sachs July 16 NEV weekly report shows dealer discount rates rising to 8.24% for EVs vs 21.46% for ICE vehicles, reflecting intense competition. 59 official price cuts occurred YTD with 8% average reduction. Upstream: battery-grade lithium carbonate at 64.5k RMB/ton (+3.7% WoW) while LFP and NCM battery prices remain flat. GS Factor Profile and M&A Rank tools reveal quantitative framework evaluating stocks through growth, financial returns, and valuation metrics.

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    5 分
  • WSJ July 15: Dollar Posts Worst 50-Year Performance! Bombshell Report Reveals Global Economic Great Divergence
    2025/07/15

    WSJ July 15 report exposes dramatic global economic divergence: ICE Dollar Index posts worst 50-year performance, plunging 13% vs Euro; mega banks celebrate (KBW index +14%) while regional banks struggle (+3% only); tariff uncertainty spawns new opportunities as Zonos software surges helping firms calculate tariff costs; US copper hits record highs, 37% consumers abandon purchases over unsustainable packaging; Pittsburgh steel ruins transform into AI compute hubs, private equity battles for $12T 401k market, Grayscale plans IPO. Traditional retail survival: Printemps NYC creates "apartment-style" experience, Mars decodes "cat insecurity syndrome."

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    6 分
  • Goldman Sachs Shocker: China Property Valuations Crash to 2008 Crisis Levels - July 15 Report Reveals Market Reality
    2025/07/15

    Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly (July 15) reveals: New home sales plunge 30% while second-hand transactions surge 16% YTD; Developer valuations crash to 0.5x P/B ratio, lowest since 2008; Urban village redevelopment emerges as demand-side catalyst, but 26-month inventory overhang persists; Market confidence severely damaged with widespread bearish price expectations. Warning: Excessive construction could worsen oversupply, policy precision crucial.

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    4 分