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  • US Housing Market Sees Mixed Signals Amid Affordability Woes and Inventory Shifts

    US Housing Market Sees Mixed Signals Amid Affordability Woes and Inventory Shifts
    2025/07/18
    The US housing industry this week is showing mixed but slightly improved sentiment as builder confidence in July edged up following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose to 33, up a single point from June, but this remains among its lowest readings in more than two years. Key challenges remain: affordability is at historic lows and elevated mortgage rates continue to depress demand. The average 30-year US mortgage rate climbed to 6.75 percent, its second consecutive weekly increase, a level on par with rates a year ago. These elevated borrowing costs are a major barrier for prospective buyers and are expected to keep the market sluggish through the remainder of 2025.

    Inventory, however, has seen a notable uptick. Active housing inventory in June surged 17 percent year over year to 1.36 million homes, nearing a six-year high. This growth in available homes has helped nudge the national market closer to balance, with 22 of the 50 largest metro areas now considered neutral, up from just eight markets a year ago.

    Price adjustments are increasingly common as sellers try to attract limited buyers. A record 26.6 percent of listings saw price cuts in June. Nationally, the typical home value now stands at 367,369 dollars. Some metro areas are experiencing annual price growth, most notably Cleveland and New York, while others such as Austin, Tampa, and Miami are posting sharp declines.

    New home prices have declined in several pandemic hot spots. Jacksonville, Naples, and Miami saw new home prices drop between 13 and 22 percent since their peaks. Meanwhile, markets like San Jose remain exceptionally expensive, with average new-home prices around 1.8 million dollars.

    Builders and industry leaders are responding to these challenges by increasing incentives, implementing average price cuts of 5 percent, and lobbying for further policy reforms. Still, with single-family home permits down 6 percent year-to-date and builder traffic at a multi-year low, industry expectations for starts remain weak, a contrast to the slightly more active environment prior to 2023.

    Trade policy uncertainty, supply chain volatility caused by tariff threats, and a slow drop-off in inflation have further complicated recovery for both buyers and builders. The market is showing early signs of stabilization, but affordability and borrowing constraints remain the dominant themes in the near term.

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    2 分
  • "US Housing Market Cools: Affordability Crunch and Shifting Trends"

    "US Housing Market Cools: Affordability Crunch and Shifting Trends"
    2025/07/16
    The US housing market is showing clear signs of cooling as of mid-July 2025. Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, with the average 30-year fixed rate hovering near 6.8 percent, almost double what buyers saw just four years ago. Elevated rates are dampening demand, pushing many potential buyers to the sidelines and making homeownership less attainable for millions. This affordability crunch has caused existing-home sales to dip 0.7 percent year-over-year in June 2025, while median prices have stagnated or even declined in over half of the nation’s 100 largest markets.

    Price growth slowed to just 1.3 percent annually in June, the weakest pace in two years. Markets like Austin, Tampa, and several Florida cities, including Cape Coral, have seen prices drop significantly, with Austin experiencing a decline of more than 100,000 dollars from peak values. The condo segment is under even more pressure, down 1.4 percent year-over-year, compared to a still-positive, but slowing, 1.6 percent rise for single-family homes.

    Inventory is on the rise, now at a 4.6-month supply nationally, up sharply from 3.8 months in 2024. Listings are sitting longer, and there has been a 47 percent increase in properties taken off the market without selling—a symptom of sellers not finding willing or able buyers. Regionally, the West and South are seeing the sharpest declines in both sales and prices, while the Midwest and Northeast are more stable.

    On the supply side, builders are cautious. The National Association of Home Builders forecasts a decline in single-family housing starts for the rest of 2025, citing a mix of demand uncertainty and rising material and labor costs. In response to these headwinds, industry leaders are doubling down on market intelligence: the National Association of Realtors just launched a new data dashboard to help agents better analyze affordability and navigate shifting market trends.

    Compared to recent years’ red-hot market, today’s landscape is marked by moderation and increased risk for both buyers and sellers. Unless mortgage rates drop further—NAR projects that a fall near 6 percent could add more than 5 million qualifying households—the market seems likely to remain sluggish, with only modest relief forecast for 2026.

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    2 分
  • "US Housing Market Shifts: Rising Inventory, Slowing Sales, and Changing Buyer Dynamics"

    "US Housing Market Shifts: Rising Inventory, Slowing Sales, and Changing Buyer Dynamics"
    2025/07/15
    The US housing market has entered a period of notable transition over the past 48 hours, reflecting accumulating pressures from high interest rates, shifting inventory, and fresh consumer behavior. As of July 15, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at roughly 6.7 percent, having dipped briefly below 6.5 percent in early April but quickly rebounding. These stubbornly high rates—much higher than the record 2.65 percent seen in early 2021—are tamping down buyer enthusiasm and slowing home sales in many regions.

    Recent labor market strength has boosted some consumer confidence; job gains in June nudged the unemployment rate down and outpaced inflation, slightly increasing purchasing power. However, the robust jobs data also quashed hopes for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, sending borrowing costs back up and limiting affordability for many families.

    Inventory is on the rise: the number of homes for sale has now increased for 20 straight months, reaching the highest post-pandemic levels. This expanded inventory, especially in Metro areas of the Sun Belt, has given buyers more leverage. In these regions, sellers face slower-moving properties and a need for price cuts. Notable buyer markets now include places like Cape Coral, San Antonio, and Phoenix, all of which witnessed surging remote-work-fueled demand during the pandemic boom. By contrast, supply remains constrained in much of the Midwest and Northeast.

    Price growth is flattening on a national scale. According to the Case-Shiller index, national prices are essentially flat year-to-date, and ICE data shows annual price growth slowed to just 1.3 percent in June, the lowest in two years. Some economists warn that, unless mortgage rates fall, the housing sector could soon become a significant drag on the broader economy.

    A record $56 billion in US homes were purchased by foreign buyers over the past year, up 33 percent, with nearly half of these buyers paying cash—far above the share among domestic buyers.

    Industry leaders and homebuilders are increasingly offering incentives and price flexibility to attract buyers, especially in overstocked Sun Belt markets. While fears of a major price collapse remain unlikely, the market is tilting in favor of buyers for the first time in years as supply rebounds and sellers adjust expectations.

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    3 分
  • "US Housing Market Transition: Buyer Leverage, Inventory Growth, and Structural Challenges"

    "US Housing Market Transition: Buyer Leverage, Inventory Growth, and Structural Challenges"
    2025/07/14
    In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry has shown clear signs of transition, with market activity reflecting both a plateau and emerging buyer leverage. Recent data from Realtor.com show that after a surge in inventory growth early in 2025, the pace has leveled off, with active listings maintaining a 27 percent annual increase for three consecutive weeks. New listings rose 9.3 percent year-over-year in early July, but the overall momentum appears to be fading as more sellers pull homes from the market due to unmet price expectations. Delistings have risen 35 percent year-to-date, and 47 percent just in May, underscoring seller hesitation. Still, at 1,082,520 active listings, inventory is at its highest since late 2019, although it remains 12.9 percent below pre-pandemic norms.

    Buyers are gaining ground as homes spend more time on market and the share of properties selling above asking price has dropped to a springtime low of 28 percent. Pending sales have declined 1.1 percent in the past year, and only 37.6 percent of properties under contract went pending within two weeks, the lowest spring figure since 2020. This reflects more negotiating power for buyers, pushing median sales prices down to $397,000 compared to a $425,950 median list price, a 7 percent discount.

    Mortgage rates have fluctuated, with the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.87 percent as of July 13, a slight uptick from last week, though they dipped to 6.67 percent in late June and early July. This brief rate drop did spur a 9 percent jump in mortgage purchase applications for the week ending July 4.

    Despite more supply and longer selling times, home prices remain near record highs, particularly as construction costs and regulatory barriers persist. Labor shortages, higher material costs, and anti-density zoning laws continue to strain affordability and supply. Industry leaders and policymakers have yet to deliver transformative solutions, with recent efforts focusing on mortgage rate reductions and proposed tax credits for first-time buyers.

    Compared to previous reporting, the current period is marked by a cooling yet still expensive housing landscape, with buyers increasingly dictating terms and sellers responding with price cuts or incentives. Experts forecast a possible 1 percent price drop by year-end, and some markets have already begun to see declines. The balance of power in US housing is shifting, but structural challenges remain.

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    3 分
  • US Housing Market Sees Shift Toward Buyers as Affordability Remains Challenging

    US Housing Market Sees Shift Toward Buyers as Affordability Remains Challenging
    2025/07/10
    The US housing market in early July 2025 is marked by growing inventory and shifting leverage from sellers to buyers, yet affordability and supply challenges persist across the country. Data released this week show that inventory levels are up across major markets. In Houston, active listings have climbed 31.8 percent compared to last year, pushing housing inventory to 5.4 months supply, the highest since 2012 and above the national average. Sales volume in Houston increased year-over-year by 12.5 percent, but monthly sales dropped 5.2 percent, and home prices are showing signs of softening as affordability hits a forty-year low.

    In Los Angeles, the median sold home price rose 3.8 percent year-over-year in June. However, sales volume dipped 8.3 percent from May, and active listings rose 9 percent month-over-month, giving buyers more negotiation power. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 6.77 percent on June 26, the lowest since early May, but still historically high and limiting affordability.

    Las Vegas saw the median sales price of single-family homes rise to 485,000 dollars, up 1 percent from May. Yet sales volume dropped 6.8 percent month-over-month and 7 percent year-over-year, while listings sit longer on the market, indicating the market is increasingly buyer-friendly.

    Despite these regional variations, the underlying national issue remains a chronic housing shortfall. According to Zillow, the US housing deficit reached 4.7 million units after a net increase of 159,000 fewer homes than needed in 2023. Construction added 1.4 million new homes last year, but this was outpaced by 1.8 million newly-formed households. This supply gap continues to drive up prices and has forced 8.1 million families to share homes with non-relatives, especially among millennials.

    There are also signs of investor activity helping to prop up demand. Real estate investors now account for over 26 percent of home purchases, and foreign buyers remain active despite high rates. However, the rate of canceled home sales has risen for the third consecutive month, with 6 percent of pending deals falling apart in May.

    In response to affordability and slowing sales, builders and sellers have increased buyer incentives such as closing cost assistance. Meanwhile, industry leaders and policymakers are calling for reduced building restraints to address the chronic deficit in affordable housing.

    Compared to past years, the current market features more balanced conditions, greater price negotiation, and a clear emphasis on affordability challenges. Inventory is trending up, but resolving the national housing shortfall continues to be the biggest hurdle facing industry leaders and consumers alike.

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    3 分
  • US Housing Market Rebalancing: Navigating the Shift in Inventory, Pricing, and Buyer-Seller Dynamics

    US Housing Market Rebalancing: Navigating the Shift in Inventory, Pricing, and Buyer-Seller Dynamics
    2025/07/09
    The U.S. housing industry is currently at a crossroads, with recent data revealing a market that is rebalancing after years of intense buyer demand and tight inventory. Over the past week, Realtor.com reported that active inventory has surged nearly 29% year-over-year in June, reaching a post-pandemic high with over one million homes listed nationwide. Despite this increase in supply, homes are staying on the market longer—a median of 53 days in June, up five days from last year. More than one in five listings have seen price cuts, the highest share for any June since at least 2016, while median home prices remained largely flat, rising just 0.1% year-over-year to $440,950[1][3][8].

    A notable shift from previous reporting is the rise in delistings, with homeowners pulling listings up 47% year-over-year in May. This suggests sellers are less willing to settle for lower prices and are opting to wait out the market if their expectations are not met. As a result, both buyers and sellers are acting more cautiously—buyers have more options and are price-sensitive, while sellers are recalibrating their expectations. This hesitancy is creating a standoff, tempering the urgency that marked the market in recent years[1][3][8].

    On the consumer side, affordability remains a key concern, with mortgage rates hovering around 6.7%, contributing to the poorest affordability in decades. However, economists anticipate modest improvements if rates drop to 6% or 6.5% by year-end, which could stimulate more buyer activity[5]. Meanwhile, real estate investors are seizing opportunities, purchasing nearly 27% of residential homes in the first quarter of 2025, their highest share in at least five years[4][7]. This trend is reshaping competition, as investors can act more quickly than traditional buyers, especially in markets with price corrections or increased supply.

    Industry leaders are responding by emphasizing strategic pricing, targeted marketing, and strong agent support for both buyers and sellers. Some regions, like Long Beach, California, are seeing mixed signals: single-family home prices are up year-over-year, but condos are down, and overall inventory is higher than last year. Sellers are advised to prepare homes thoroughly and leverage experienced agents, while buyers are encouraged to be ready and patient, with personalized home search strategies helping them stay ahead of new listings[2].

    In summary, the U.S. housing market is shifting toward more balance, with increased inventory, longer time on market, and cautious behavior from both buyers and sellers. Investor activity is up, and while affordability remains a barrier, experts expect slight improvements if mortgage rates continue to ease. Market leaders are adapting by focusing on efficiency and customer support to navigate these evolving conditions.

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  • US Housing Market Struggles Amid High Rates, Affordability Woes

    US Housing Market Struggles Amid High Rates, Affordability Woes
    2025/07/08
    The US housing industry over the past 48 hours reflects a market struggling to regain momentum as high mortgage rates, shifts in consumer behavior, and weak affordability continue to dominate headlines. Recent data shows house price growth is slowing sharply: the ICE Home Price Index reveals annual home price growth cooled to just 1.3 percent year over year in early June, the slowest pace since mid 2023. In fact, single-family home prices are up only 1.6 percent from a year ago, and condo prices have turned negative, falling 1.3 percent overall, with major declines in Florida cities like Cape Coral, where condo prices are down over 12 percent since last year. More than half of the top 100 US housing markets now report condo prices below last year’s mark.

    Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. The latest average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.81 percent, up slightly from last week, and experts anticipate rates will stay in the 6.5 to 6.7 percent range throughout 2025. This continued strain on affordability has pushed more buyers to the sidelines. Data from the National Association of Realtors and other sources confirm that existing home sales are notably weak; May sales fell 0.7 percent from April. The US is on track for around 4 million total sales in 2025, which would mark the lowest levels since 1995. First-time homebuyer participation has hit record lows this year, and the number of renters reached a historic 46 million households as more people are priced out of the market.

    Builders face pressure as well. In May, new home sales dropped 6 percent compared to a year ago, causing construction activity to slow, particularly in the critical starter-home segment. Meanwhile, inventory is finally rising but largely made up of higher-priced homes held by Baby Boomers, contributing to a generational divide and further limiting access for younger buyers.

    Industry leaders are responding with a mix of cautious optimism and realism. Some are calling for targeted government intervention or incentives for first-time buyers. Many expect that only a significant decline in mortgage rates or a shift in inventory mix could restore momentum, but for now most forecast continued slow growth, elevated rents, and a challenging landscape for both buyers and sellers compared to previous years.

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  • US Housing Market Resilience Amid Affordability Challenges - A Podcast Exploring the Industry's Evolving Landscape

    US Housing Market Resilience Amid Affordability Challenges - A Podcast Exploring the Industry's Evolving Landscape
    2025/07/07
    The US housing industry over the past 48 hours reflects a complex landscape of stabilization, selective growth, and persistent affordability challenges. Market activity is showing notable trends as data from early July 2025 demonstrate both resilience and the lingering impacts of high mortgage rates.

    Mortgage purchase applications have posted a 22-week growth streak, with nine of those weeks seeing double-digit year-over-year gains. This robust mortgage application activity suggests improving buyer confidence despite significant obstacles posed by higher borrowing costs. Over the past week, total pending home sales reached 396,652, marking continued year-over-year growth. Housing inventory is notably stronger compared to last year, growing from 831,110 to 853,180 units in the week ending July 4, 2025, compared to 645,713 to 652,518 for the same period in 2024. This active inventory is now back on par with pre-pandemic levels, offering buyers more choices and tempering some of the acute supply constraints that defined the past several years[1][2].

    Mortgage rates have held steady, with the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.79 percent as of July 6, 2025. This persistent stability comes after years of volatility, though the current rate remains historically high and continues to pinch affordability for many buyers. Rate projections suggest only moderate decreases ahead, reinforcing the expectation that rates above 6 percent will likely remain the norm through at least the end of 2025[4]. Rising home prices have been accompanied by a rising trend in price reductions, with average May reductions of 17,962 dollars compared to 15,533 dollars a year earlier. This signals a willingness among sellers to negotiate, reflecting a modest rebalancing of market power[5].

    Major industry voices, including Berkshire Hathaway, caution that conditions favoring rapid home price appreciation or sharply lower mortgage rates are unlikely to return soon. The mismatch between housing demand and available inventory persists, and many would-be buyers have opted to postpone purchasing, turning instead to the rental market or waiting for improved affordability[7]. On the regulatory front, local initiatives such as Denver’s new tax break pilot for middle-income housing projects highlight ongoing efforts to stimulate affordable development, though these have not yet shifted the national picture in a major way[3].

    Consumer demand remains steady, but elevated costs and cautious optimism define the current mood. While active inventory is higher and price cuts are more common, meaningful relief from high prices and limited supply remains elusive compared to pre-pandemic norms. Industry leaders are responding by emphasizing flexibility, both for buyers and sellers, while tracking incremental policy and economic shifts for possible tailwinds in the months ahead[1][5][7].

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    3 分